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What is it with the French political elite?

Thomas Piketty talks bo***cks in his book ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’. President Hollande’s idiotic policies are driving away France’s Golden Geese from its shores in droves. Just ask Gerard Depardieu.

Now Christine Lagarde, the French managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is following suit in her recent address to the Inclusive Capitalism Conference. She doesn’t see the irony in the IMF promoting social equality. See http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/052714.htm .

She says that persistent ethical failings among bankers, together with rising inequality, are undermining growth and financial stability. “The industry still prizes short-term profit over long-term prudence, today’s bonus over tomorrow’s relationship.” She may well be right about the banking industry, but to say that rising inequality is a barrier to growth, and could undermine democracy and human rights, is pure ideological cant.

Listen to her words: “One of the leading economic stories of our time is rising income inequality, and the dark shadow it casts across the global economy.” She quoted Oxfam’s claim that the world’s richest 85 people control the same wealth as the poorest half of the global population of 3.5 billion people.

“We must recognise that reducing inequality is not easy. Redistributive policies always produce winners and losers. Yet if we want capitalism to do its job – enabling as many people as possible to participate and benefit from the economy – then it needs to be more inclusive. That means addressing extreme income disparity.”

This is not rational economic theory, rather mere sentimentality. Her options to address inequality include more progressive taxation and greater use of property taxes. In other words Capitalism must stop being Capitalism. Risk takers must subsidize the risk averse, and the political elite will sort it all out. Just like Hollande in France? What arrogance! Jesus understood that “the poor you will always have with you …” Mathew 26:11.

How can the boss of the IMF fail to grasp both the moral jeopardy in her proposals, and that inequality is the engine of wealth creation? Redistribution is just interference by incompetents, knaves and the naive. The winners in Redistribution she refers to are the parasites in the political elite.

I’m not saying that “Greed is Good”. However, we should never lose sight of the fact that there is a Calvinistic morality in profit. The alternative, the slime mould of collectivism, will always create a dependency culture that ultimately destroys innovation, precipitates the entry of organized crime into business, and undermines the ability of trade to generate wealth.

And in the words of that great American vaudeville singer and philosopher, Sophie Tucker: “I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor. Believe me, honey, rich is better.”

Biblical Tax Collectors

David Lesperance and I need to get a move on with publishing The Flight of the Golden Geese. Many of the predictions in the book are coming to pass even before it sees the light of day.

One particular prediction is already happening in the UK. We say that the popular political rhetoric of squeezing the rich ‘until the pips squeak’ is total bunkum. There simply aren’t enough wealthy people around. Taxing them at 100%, or even confiscation, would not generate sufficient funds to cover the waste of profligate politicians. The target for tax collectors has always been the hard working middle classes and upper working classes. Our prediction is that the situation will get even more critical when the mobile rich, the Golden Geese, fly away from increasing tax demands, leaving those suckers with an even bigger tax bill.

Today in the UK, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) are experimenting with bully-boy letters sent to a thousand higher rate tax payers demanding to know why their self assessments require the payment of less tax than persons with similar earning profiles. No checking if the assessments are valid and the avoidance of tax is legitimate. A threatening letter was sent to an elderly widow who had made a large charitable donation, thereby legally reducing her liability.

By definition roughly half of tax payers in any profile will be paying less than average. People will end up paying more than they need just for the taxmen to go away. Over the last year the HMRC has been very successful in intimidating more money out of people with this ‘guilty until proven innocent’ approach. Soon we can expect to see these threatening letters rolled out across the whole country.

The HMRC is behaving like their counterparts in the Bible, and like in those times, tax-collectors will become pariahs in society.

France: economic suicide by socialism

France is dead, only the French haven’t realized it yet. It died on 6 May 2012, when the turkeys in France voted for Christmas. In the final runoff in the election for President of the Republic, socialist François Hollande with 51.63% of the vote defeated Nicolas Sarkozy with 48.37%. France had a new President who was reported to have once said “I hate the rich”.

In his campaign the victor had promised a socialist assault on the rich, by increasing the tax on incomes over €1m, temporarily (where have we heard that before), to 75%. After a raft of tax increases that were intended to raise an extra 30 billion euros in 2013, the Court of Auditors, which oversees the county’s accounts, tell us that the amount raised in a mere 16 billion. And at what cost?

Despite being elected on a anti-austerity platform, Hollande has been forced to implement spending cuts, saying France “cannot live with such heavy debt”. The end of 2013 saw unemployment hit a record high of 11%. There was zero growth in the first three months of 2014, and a significant number of the wealthy are jumping ship – so less taxes will be collected in future.

Just as we say in our upcoming book ‘The Flight of the Golden Geese’, the politics of envy doesn’t work. The state ends up collecting less taxes, and in the process the economy is destroyed.

Oscar: the beginning

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I’m often asked how I came to own Oscar. He of course claims that only dogs have masters; cats have staff. You’d never catch eight cats dragging a sled through snow. Women and cats do as they like, men and dogs do as they’re told. Dogs come when called, cats take a message and get back to you. Cats are God’s way of demonstrating not everything has a function.

As well as Oscar, I have a cat named Ben Her. At first I called it Ben, but then she had kittens.

How did I come to own Oscar? I was driving around the country lanes of deepest Surrey, when I noticed a sign saying ‘Talking cat for sale. Apply at farmhouse at the end of the lane’. Intrigued I drove there. The farmer welcomed me, and showed me out the back where Oscar was sitting on an arm chair. I sat opposite and we had a wonderful conversation. He told of his trips to Europe and the US. How he had met President Obama and George Clooney. He regaled me of his adventures in Afghanistan and Greenland.

I knew I had to buy him. I asked the farmer ‘how much’, expecting a price in thousands of pounds.

He said ‘Twenty pounds’.

Shocked, I said ‘is that all?’

‘You’ve heard him talk. He’s such a liar. He was born on this farm, and has never left it.’

Happy Tax Freedom Day

Wednesday May 28 is Tax Freedom day in the UK … the day the average Brit stops working for the government, and start working for themselves. That’s 148 days a year. Or so I’m told by the Adam Smith Institute. It is April 21 in the USA.

According the Adam Smith Institute “It is calculated by comparing general government tax revenue with Net National Income (NNI). The total of all government tax revenue – direct and indirect taxes, local taxes and National Insurance contributions – is calculated as a percentage of NNI at market prices. This year it comes to 41.09%. That percentage is then converted to days of the year, starting from 1 January. The first day of the year that Britons work for themselves rather than the taxman is Tax Freedom Day.”

For the wealthy and for the poor it is a lot earlier. For us suckers in the middle it is a lot later of course. The idea that when it’s all added up (including VAT, petrol tax, National Insurance) it comes to just over 40% is simply laughable. The word ‘average’ of course is where the deceit lies. It is sobering to remember that half the UK population gets more from the government than they put in.

Then there’s the Cost of Government Day — the day the government stops spending money — a more realistic figure of nearly 50% … this year it will be 26th June.

And as they say, ‘even the Mafia doesn’t charge you 50%’.

Everybody knows Oscar

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Oscar the talking cat has now become very famous. Everybody knows about Oscar. I told one of my betting friends this, and he was very dismissive. So I said “choose three famous people, and we’ll go and ask them if they know Oscar. If any one of them doesn’t know Oscar then I pay you one million pounds, otherwise you pay me one million.”

“OK” he said.

First Madonna. “Do I know Oscar, everybody knows Oscar. Why just last week I asked his advice on my next single.”

Second: the Queen of England. We knocked on the palace door, and Prince Phillip answered. “Excuse me, we’ve come to ask the Queen if she knows Oscar.”

“Does she know Oscar, of course she knows Oscar. Everybody knows Oscar. Hey Liz, there are two blokes down here asking about Oscar.”

The Queen shouted back “tell them they’ve just missed him.”

My friend was getting worried now, so for his third choice he said the Pope. We were walking across St Marks Square looking up at the balcony, where we saw Oscar and the Pope deep in conversation. Suddenly a tourist taps my friend on the shoulder, and said. “Excuse me mate, up there on the balcony, who’s the guy in white talking to Oscar?”

Oscar on Managing Uncertainty

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A little while ago Oscar was invited to be a keynote speaker at a commercial conference: ‘Managing Uncertainty’. He shared the stage with a statistician and the conference chairman. The statistician was on first. He droned on and on about Risk being all about distributions and expectations. The business audience found it inspiring stuff! Within five minutes eyes began to glaze over. After ten he was talking to an audience of one: Oscar. Oscar was on the stage, and so he had to listen to the rubbish.

But then, Oscar was expecting this. He always says that a statistician is someone who wants to work with numbers, but doesn’t have the personality to be an accountant. Statisticians think the average human being has one tit and one testicle.

Finally the man finished, and it was Oscar’s turn. He walked slowly over to the podium, and just stood there, … and stood there, … and stood there. For a whole minute he just stood there. He fidgeted, and shot frantic and terrified glances at the audience. At first there was silence, then a few murmurs, then a growing rumble of concern. The chairman rose to help, and was half way across the stage when Oscar banged his paw on the table. In a firm voice he announced: “now that’s uncertainty, it has nothing to do with statistics.”

Oscar on Expectation

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Some time ago Oscar watched a thief break into a neighbour’s house. The owners were out at a concert and had left the house in darkness. The burglar was stumbling around, not realising Oscar had followed him inside. Then in a quiet voice Oscar whispered “Be careful. Jesus is watching you.”

The burglar almost jumped out of his skin. Who said that?

“Oscar” came the ghostly reply. But nothing else happened. He must have imagined it.

As the thief was going up the stairs the silence was once again broken with: “Be careful. Jesus is watching you.” Who said that?

The disembodied voice said: “I’m Oscar.” The burglar screamed and bolted down stairs. Once again: “Be careful. Jesus is watching you” rang out.

The thief fell, and crashed to the floor in a tangle of arms and legs. Looking up he sees Oscar the cat creeping down the stairs.

“I told you to be careful. Jesus is watching you.”

Recovering his senses, the burglar decided he must have hit his head in the fall and was imagining things. He looked straight at Oscar and said: “what sort of idiot do you think I am. A talking cat called Oscar indeed?”

Pointing over his shoulder, Oscar calmly replied: “The same sort of idiot who failed to see the rottweiler called Jesus standing behind you.”

Here we have yet another lesson on statistics from Oscar. What’s the point of going on and on about expectations, when the world always confronts you with the unexpected.

Oscar on addition

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One plus one is … thirteen hundred and forty two

Talk to Oscar and you learn that he has a very unusual and variable understanding of arithmetic. Ask him the big question “what is one plus one” and he is more than likely to retort “are we buying or selling?” But I remember on one specific occasion he responded “thirteen hundred and forty two”.

A local farmer had a field of watermelons – thirteen hundred and forty four of them. Oscar knows that I love watermelons, and to please me two weeks ago he stole one from the field. The farmer was very annoyed – thirteen hundred and forty three left. Then to add insult to injury last week Oscar stole another – leaving thirteen hundred and forty two.

The farmer was furious, but he had a bright idea. He would put up a sign saying “One of these water melons has been injected with cyanide.” In injecting one melon he had lost one melon, and he knew which one. That still left thirteen hundred and forty one, so it was a price worth paying.

When this week Oscar went to steal another, he saw the sign. He came straight home, picked up a red felt-tip pen, and went straight back to the field. After scrawling over the sign, he crossed out the word ‘one’, so it now read “Two of these water melons have been injected with cyanide.”

With the farmer injecting cyanide into one melon, plus Oscar claiming to have injected one melon, the farmer had lost not two but thirteen hundred and forty two melons.

One (melon) plus one (melon) equals 1342 (melons unfit for sale).

Oscar on counting on what might have been

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As we have seen in a previous blog, Oscar knows the notion of probability is absurd. He says that if you add in ‘what might have been’, then even the whole notion of numbers gets really screwed up.

I commute by train, and the railway station is four bus stops from my home. Returning from London one day last week, I just missed a bus. So instinctively I ran after it. It came to a halt at the next stop further down the street. Just before I reached that stop, the bus took off again. Exactly the same thing happened at the next stop, and the next. Only one stop away from home, exhausted I gave up and decided to walk.

Once home I kissed the cat, and told my wife how I had run home. I was very pleased with myself. I announced that in running home I had saved £1.20.

Oscar was listening. As cynical as ever he butted in: “Call yourself a professor! If you had chased a taxi you would have saved £5.”