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Economic Suicide by Excessive Regulation

When will the British Governments ever learn. The unpalatable truth is the present policy of taxation is skewed to take off the top quarter of the population. This group is sick and tired, not only of the amount they are paying in tax, but the increasing intrusion on their privacy. The latest demands to spy on bank accounts, and even take money to settle unpaid demands in advance, is the latest of a series of sinister events.

Most of this group are stuck, however, the top end, what I label the Golden Geese are not. We are reaching a tipping point where they will fly away. The ‘name and shame’ policy around the clients of Ingenious Media is causing a furore.

If they are no longer tax domiciled in the UK, then they don’t owe any tax, and so will escape the net. Most of these people are ‘citizens of the world’ anyway. The spend their lives travelling the globe. The more they are attacked by the state, the sooner they will cut their tax-ties to it. … The Flight of the Golden Geese. And the state … it will have to increase taxes to make up for the shortfall. Suicide by jumping off the fiscal cliff.

The cost of dying index

Forget about the `cost of living`, the `cost of dying` has increased substantially for many in the UK. Because of large increase in the cost of real estate over recent years, the proportion of properties in Britain that have now fallen into the net of `death duties` (inheritance tax) has gone up from 13.5% to 20% in just five years. And remember when the final tax bill is calculated, the value of the goods, chattels, bank accounts and investments left in the deceased’s estate are added to the taxable total.

This increase is because the threshold of this 40% tax, £325,000, hasn’t changed since 2009. What  a devious way to to raise the tax take. Last years receipts of £3.4 billion have gone up 20% over the intervening five years. London and the South East are hardest hit of course: 47% of London houses and 27% of SE houses are now over the threshold. In Kensington and Chelsea 96% of properties are hit.

Canada, with no estate taxes, is looking increasingly attractive to elderly British high net worth individuals, who because of death duties, are contemplating becoming Golden Geese.

Socks, Sandals and the Politics of Envy

The socks and sandals Liberals are at it again. After a disastrous showing in the European Elections, their leader Clegg thinks the way to recover lost ground is to push the politics of envy down the electorate’s throat. Bash the wealthy, and promise to dole out money to everyone else. That will reignite his party’s populist credentials. They are flogging the dead horse of the Mansion Tax again.

I don’t want to go into the arguments again – see my blog of April 14, 2014. Suffice it to say, the tax raises far less than expected, while building resentment among the wealthy who will spend their money elsewhere.

Dominica: destination of choice

Dominica: the destination of choice for many Golden Geese. So says a recent BBC online news article.

Surely not? A quick check of the CIA Factbook will show it is an island 751 square kilometers in area, with a population of 73,449. I ask myself, ‘but would I want to live there?’

But then I imagined my co-author David’s response ringing in my ears. ‘Because of all the islands in the Caribbean, its price for selling a passport is still the lowest. You can buy citizenship there for around $100,000 dollars, after being interviewed by a government committee. And who mentioned anything about living there?’

‘Remember it’s only a passport … merely a travel document. Dominica is a member of the Commonwealth, and so passport holders have special privileges in the UK. They can also travel to around 50 countries without a visa. It’s estimated that some 3000 Golden Geese have already made the flight there.’

Enough said.

“I am not a number.” Fighting the government over ID cards.

“I am not a number. I am a free man!” The words of Patrick McGoohan as Number 6 in the TV series ‘The Prisoner’ come to mind.

It’s hard to believe that it’s been nearly nine years since a team of Information Systems academics at LSE (Gus Hosein, Simon Davies, Edgar Whitley, myself and others) published our report, The Identity Project. The date was June 27th 2005. We were trying to inform public debate on the UK government’s ID card proposals. Among the many findings, we gave our cost estimates: between £10 billion and £19 billion over ten years. The government figure was just over £5 billion.

To be honest I personally expected the figure to be much higher, but we stuck on these numbers because they are easily justified using figures obtained from the Home Office itself – not that they are the most reliable of departments, as we all have recently discovered. In 2010 we learned that ten ‘illegals’ had been working at Becket House, the south London headquarters of the UK Border Agency, which vets immigrants! A further two found work at the Home Office’s Whitehall HQ, one as a security guard! They never learn. In 2014 Mark Harper, the immigration minister behind the controversial “go home” adverts urging illegal immigrants to leave, resigned because his private cleaner for seven years did not have permission to work here.

Anyway, we used Home Office numbers, because we weren’t looking for trouble. But trouble we got. The present British government believes in shooting the messenger with bad news.

Ministers went on the offensive – offensive being the operative word. No less that the then Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, went on the BBC to accuse us of spinning, and leaking material to the press for maximum exposure (like they do.) Tony Blair, the then Prime Minister, attacked us in the House of Commons. Second rate ministers lined up to pour scorn on our Report. Classic Socialism 101: “if you can’t rubbish the message, rubbish the messenger.”

Our figures were “simply mad,” and we were “technologically inept.” Simon Davies, a lead researcher, was singled out, and ‘smeared’ on the Today Programme on Radio 4, and all over the media. The reason? The press had fallen on our figures, to say that ID cards would cost £300 per person; not £93 as the government insisted. And guess what rigorous research gave them £93? A little biddy phoned to tell me they got it from a focus group – apparently, £93 is the amount that the market would take. When you stand up to bully-boy politicians you’d be amazed how many little birdies get in touch to dish the dirt.

But nowhere did we actually claim that each person would be charged £300 for their ID card – that was the press. We only gave the total price. There is no way of calculating total costs, because it is impossible to comprehend the consequences: we may know the price of ID cards, of any technology, however, the costs will accrue from here to eternity.

Indeed, I would be the first to admit that the project could end up in profit. If the world’s many other totalitarian regimes are convinced that ID cards are a great idea, then the income from sales could far exceed expenditure. I bet the government is now sorry that they toppled Saddam Hussein and Colonel Gadaffi – they would have been first in the sales queue. Still … they could always count on others among the world’s dictators to become customers.

Anyway, it was all good knockabout stuff. Prior to the first Commons Vote (June 29th, 2005), the then LSE Director, Sir Howard Davies, was telephoned by a senior Civil Servant and asked to pressurize us into withholding our report until after the vote. But Sir Howard, an ex-civil servant himself, had gone native. He came up trumps, publicly rebuking both Prime Minister and Home Secretary in a letter to the Times. The issue was raised at an LSE Governors meeting, where Bob Worcester of MORI waded in. He said his findings showed that whenever the government says one thing, then 83% of the population believes the exact opposite.

We were given the governors’ total backing. They had actually read our report, which our critics obviously hadn’t. If I say so myself, it is an excellent piece of academic work … unlike the Home Office’s response, which was appallingly written, and full of factual errors. I likened it to “a student summer project from a 3rd rate university.” Don’t take my word for it – you can see for yourself: the LSE report, the Home office response, and our response to their response are all on the LSE web site.

Thankfully I worked for a university that wouldn’t be intimidated by bully-boys – how many other British universities can say the same? Be quite clear, intellectual freedom is under attack in today’s Britain, and by the very same people who insist that “the innocent have nothing to fear from ID cards.”

Anyway the government needn’t have worried; after a very rough ride, the bill was finally passed by the voting fodder in the Commons on 13th February 2006, albeit with some nominal concessions, and received Royal Assent in March.

However, the project has fiasco written all over it. I say this not as a privacy advocate, because I’m not one, but as a student of Information Systems; one who subscribes to the cockup theory of history, not conspiracy. This ID card system will be one almighty cockup.

The ID card project, as proposed, was going to be one of the biggest computer systems ever envisaged – far more complex than the NHS system. It’s a disaster waiting to happen. £5.8 billion – don’t make me laugh!

Nevertheless I see silver linings among the dark clouds of ID cards. There’s huge money to be made from this vast gravy train. During the recent Commons vote I was praying for a government win. That may surprise you. I’m a professor of information systems: of course I want to study the Titanic from the drawing board to the iceberg. Of course I want to observe what will be the biggest in a whole line of public sector disasters. {Have there been any successes?}

Thankfully, after the 2010 General Election, the new coalition government saw sense and dumped the project. Not that they don’t want to spy on British subjects, rather they were frightened by the escalating costs.

I say, I say, I say. Why wouldn’t politicians have had photos on their ID cards? Because no one could decide which of their two faces to use. Strong words you might think; but NOT when your team has been slandered by brain-dead ministers simply for publishing the results of your research.

Golden Visas for Golden Geese

Under the Portuguese Residence Programme, Foreign investors who spend 500,000 euros on property in the country have the right to live there. ‘Golden Visas’ are also available to those who invest a million euros in capital, or create 10 jobs in Portugal.

For this successful applicants have unfettered travel around the Schengen area, and after six years they can apply for Portuguese citizenship. Starting in 2012, 734 of these Golden Visas have been issuedto date , raising inward investment of nearly half a billion euros. Nearly six hundred of these have come from China.

Spain has a similar scheme, but they are being undercut by Cyprus with its price tag of 300,000 euros. Greece comes in even lower at 250,000 euros.

Is this the shape of things to come?

Thanks again to BBC News online for the information.

Tax Arbitrage

Last evening I was talking on Skype to my good friend David Lesperance, the co-author of our up-coming book, Flight of the Golden Geese. Out of the blue he announced that a significant part of his tax business was helping Canadians transfer to the UK, while at the same time he was facilitating the move of Brits to Canada. At first this sounded crazy to me. Surely one country had to be more tax friendly than the other, and the tax-flight traffic would be all one way. Not so. He explained the phenomenon in terms of differences in tax arbitrage between the two countries.

The Brits were wealthy, and shall we say of a more advanced age. They were seeking permanent tax domicile in Canada, a country that has no Estate Tax – that’s Death Duties in the UK. As Canadian domiciles, when they died their assets and property would be handed over lock, stock and barrel to the named beneficiaries in their wills. If they had stayed in the UK the state would have taken a huge slice (40% of everything over £325,000).

Meanwhile the Canadians were seeking non-dom status in the UK, which meant they would only pay tax on income earned in the UK, but not on capital brought onshore. David once stayed in England for a while, and with no business here, he paid no income tax. Of course he still had to pay to live here, which brought a decent sum into the economy.

The likes of IMF Boss, Christine Lagarde, and others hint at ‘fair taxation’ being necessary to maintain a stable economy, and that states should not set tax rates detrimental to others. This is code for standardizing global taxation … a non-starter. In such standardization would the UK accept the end to Death Duties? Of course not. It would insist on Canada imposing 40%. As for non-dom status, the US would insist that their system of tax based on citizenship be imposed everywhere. At present only three countries use this system … three bastions of democracy: USA, Eritrea and North Korea. The result of standardization would be each tax moving to the highest rate in the world. Hey ho! It won’t happen. Haven’t these tax people heard of the prisoner’s dilemma?

The Fallacy of the ‘Residual Category’

I’ll start by sounding off on a favourite theme of mine: the only property that systems have in common is that THEY ALL FAIL … eventually. But it’s true. I’m always on the lookout for perverse systems failures, so please let me know if you come across any novel examples.

It’s all to do with the complexity in the interaction between computer systems and human activity systems. The evidence is there for all to see. Consider the problems with biometric databases. Baroness Anelay of St Johns, with a group of British parliamentarians, was once given a demonstration of a facial recognition system. It failed; indeed the system subsequently crashed, twice. The reason? A ‘gentleman’ at the biometrics company told the baroness that her face was “too bland.”

In 2000, Raymond Easton, a 49-year-old man living in Swindon was charged with a burglary in Bolton, 200 miles away. His DNA matched some found at the crime scene. The problem was Easton was in the advanced stages of Parkinson’s disease, and could barely dress himself. Only after an advanced DNA test was the initial match proved to be a ‘false-positive’: this is when innocents are identified as guilty, for whatever reason – ‘false-negatives’ are when the guilty slip through the net.

Television programmes like CSI (Crime Scene Investigation) trumpet the myth of forensic investigators vacuuming up biological material from the scene of crime, and comparing DNA samples with a computerised database, until finally out pops the criminal’s name: end of story! Nothing is that simple. Official figures admit to a 4% error in the database. Felons will vacuum up DNA from football crowds and collect cigarette-ends. Low paid hospital staff will be compromised to supply hospital detritus: samples of blood, skin, saliva, and other biological material. Aspiring criminals, while perpetrating a crime, will randomly scatter an arbitrary collection of DNA material all over the crime scene, and the whole system will be compromised.

Fingerprints are problematic. In 1997 Shirley McKie was a police detective in Kilmarnock, Scotland. During the investigation of the murder of Marion Ross, it was claimed that she had accidently left her thumb print inside the house where the murder took place. McKie was adamant that she had not entered the property, and this was affecting the credibility of the police case. She refused to back down, and was arrested in a dawn raid the following year and charged with perjury. The only evidence was the thumb print allegedly found at the murder scene. Two American experts testified on her behalf at her trial in May 1999 and she was found not guilty. The Scottish Criminal Record Office would not admit any error, but Scottish first minister Jack McConnell later said there had been an “honest mistake”. On February 7, 2006, McKie was awarded £750,000 in compensation.

The Chaos Computer Club (CCC), the long-standing German hackers’ club, has shown how to capture fingerprints, transfer them onto a foil, and then wear it to beat biometric readers across Germany. To add insult to injury CCC has published a fingerprint of the German Interior Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, a vocal supporter of biometrics.

All of these cases are examples of problems resulting from self-referential tunnel vision, all caused by the fallacy of the ‘residual category’. In creating a computerised system, designers first identify and then categorise certain entities (and their properties) as being of interest – as data. Focussing on these data categories, everything else is dumped into one big residual category, and ignored. However, the representation of each ‘interesting’ element can only ever be a pale shadow of the totality of the thing itself. All other aspects of that thing are deemed unnecessary, and they too are discarded in the residual category. The categorical representation of ‘each thing as data’ is not identical to the thing-in-itself: because ‘the map {the overall data structure} is not the terrain.’

Each shadow element will remain ‘structurally coupled’ to the ‘rest of the world,’ but in creating the computerised system all these couplings are cut and discarded. Therefore, treating the ‘remainder’ as a separate ‘residual category’ implies that these couplings have simply disappeared, which means the two parts (the data, and everything else in the residual category) no longer comprise the original ‘whole.’

Hence, the system, by its very nature, introduces an asymmetry: the couplings are made to disappear from any representation … but they are still there in the world. The two artificially separated parts continue to operate (and perhaps interact) as the unobservable whole. Because of this asymmetry (between the world as it is, and as it is represented), all data is conditional, but those conditions are necessarily unobservable, unappreciable. However, they can be appreciated by others who take a different perspective, and derive different categorisations outside this self-referential loop.

System designers (and users) always have tunnel vision, assuming that everything in the residual category will mind its own business and not interfere. However, the analysis implicit in the system’s design is not the only one. A different perspective will beget different observations, different interpretations, different categorisations … a different analysis and a different system that will compete with the original. Natural selection, and not mathematical sophistication will decide which system is the most appropriate.

This non-referential aspect of every data entity in the system means that all such data is necessarily a misrepresentation. Another observation is required to clarify the situation, however, that too will introduce new distinctions, bringing with it new partially unobserved interferences, new (mis)representations.

This problem is apparent in all attempts at categorisation. A choice of categories may solve preconceived problems, however, bewildering situations will inevitably arise that finesse, even reverse, the best intentions of analysts.

Truncated and trailing structural couplings, so casually discarded by the system, stay on to haunt and interfere with the user, and they can reassert themselves in the most inconvenient ways. One particularly good example of how opportunists can take advantage of the asymmetry is the so-called ‘click fraud’ in on-line advertising.

Analysts from Google, Yahoo and others have developed the highly profitable pay-per-click system. Anyone can display ‘Google ads’ on their Web sites, and any visitor who clicks on the ‘ad.’ is transferred to the advertiser’s site. Every click is charged to the advertiser, and the income is shared down the food chain, some eventually ending up with the site displaying the advertisement. Apparently advertisers get better value for money than with old media, because they only pay for ‘live ones,’ those interested parties who bothered to click on the ‘ad.’ The value of this business in the US alone is well in excess of 10 billion dollars annually.

Those not interested in the products supposedly don’t click the advertisements. Oh no! People in this residual category of ‘disinterest in the products for sale’ may take a very different perspective, and show a lively interest in the ‘free money’ on offer – hence the ‘click fraud.’ I should add that I’m not sure it is a fraud. If a company announces ‘get someone to click on my site and I’ll pay you,’ then they shouldn’t be surprised if some of the visitors come from the residual category of non-customers.

The opportunists who categorise the world differently set up dummy sites filled solely with ‘Google ads.’ They then hire people to click on the ‘ads’, with no intension of buying anything of course, and in this way sites can make quite a few ‘bucks per click’. Such moneymaking antics have even been automated. It has been estimated that this click fraud costs business around half a billion dollars a year. Google, Yahoo are intercepting the more obvious frauds, but it still goes on.

Aren’t residual categories wonderful?
I’d love to hear of the particular experiences of anyone (anonymously of course!) who has set up such a site.

Automation Complacency

It never ceases to amaze me how history repeats itself – and we never seem to learn from it. The same old problems seem to keep on cropping up. In this short blog I’d like to refer to one particular form that I call ‘automation complacency,’ where high-tech devices and a faith in systems lull us into a false sense of security. I’ve been collecting examples for twenty five years. Here are a couple of the first I came across.

Here is an example from over twenty years ago. On October 17, 1989, the earthquake in San Francisco knocked out all ATM and EFTPOS machines. {By the way do we still use the term EPTPOS (Electronic Funds Transfer at Point Of Sale) today? In the UK we just say ‘chip and pin.’} After the ‘quake no-one could buy badly needed goods (like food!) because their credit/debit cards were useless with the EFTPOS down, and they couldn’t use cash because no-one had any with the ATMs out of action! Utility had become reliance, reliance had become dependence, and an accident was waiting to happen.

There’s another earthquake story from ‘Frisco. I don’t have the exact details, so I’d be grateful if any reader can fill in the gaps. It concerns a company {unknown} that had conscientiously developed a disaster recovery programme. Like good boy scouts, they were prepared for all eventualities. An exact back-up system of their computer facility was housed in Arizona, which could be on-line at the flick of a switch. They even had emergency drills, where all staff rushed to the airport and flew off to Phoenix {I think}, so they could deliver a normal service to their customers in a matter of hours.

Confident, or is that complacent, that their system had all the angles covered, a major earthquake duly came, {I think it was the same quake} and the backup system swung into action. However, unlike in the dry runs, this time all the staff rushed home to check that their families were unharmed!

Has anyone got similar stories of automation complacency?

Another Day, Another Tax

I opened the newspaper today and immediately two new tax stories popped out.

First, the European Union is recommending that the UK increase taxes on property and land in order to … wait for it … boost economic growth in Britain. The EU doesn’t do irony.

Furthermore they said ‘To assist with fiscal consolidation, consideration should be given to raising tax revenues through broadening the tax base.’

Meanwhile the Labour Party is planning a ‘big idea’: to add another 1% increase to National Insurance Contributions to increase the budget for the National Health Service (for non-Brits that’s a tax on employment masquerading as payment for social benefits including the NHS). The tax is paid both by the employed and their employers … a tax on jobs to subsidise non-jobs. Employers organisations warn that any increase in ‘contributions’ (I love these euphemisms for theft) will cause job losses: The Oxford Economics study concluded 91,000 fewer jobs.

Clearly Labour is the Party for losers, intent on dragging even more of British society into that category.