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Oscar on the absurdity of independent variables

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Students on the LSE course Analysis, Design and Management of Information Systems (ADMIS) are very familiar with my cat Oscar. Oscar is very special; he can talk.

When some friends visited my home recently, I mentioned my cat’s talent. Totally disbelieving, they gave me odds of ten-to-one that Oscar couldn’t talk. I called him over; but he just sat there, … miaow … he didn’t say a word. My friends took my money and left.

I was furious, and glared at him; “no prawns for you tonight”. Then in a very superior voice, because Oscar is a very superior cat, he purred: “call yourself a professor! Tomorrow night we’ll get a hundred-to-one.”

Oscar is saying that independent variables so beloved of statisticians simply do not exist whenever people are involved. As far as my friends were concerned there was just one bet, but for Oscar he deliberately threw today’s bet to win at far better odds tomorrow. So here we realize that by bringing time into the equation, and the fact that one party has inside information, the notion of a numerical probability bears absolutely no relation to what is actually happening.

Science’s First Mistake and Religion

I wrote this essay in response to one of my students asking how my book Science’s First Mistake: Delusions in Pursuit of Theory (written jointly with Dr. Dionysios Demetis, and published by Bloombury Academic) related to religion. Although an agnostic, I find the behaviour of many humanists towards religious believers thoroughly reprehensible – my reasoning, based on the book’s analysis of scientific method is apparent in the essay.

Science’s First Mistake and Religion

The 2009 Christmas season in London had Richard Dawkins teaming up with Ricky Gervais, Dara O’Briain, Jarvis Cocker and other celebrities, to put on a show they called ‘Nine Lessons and Carols for Godless People’, at the Bloomsbury Theatre and the Hammersmith Apollo. This motley crew of smug self-professed humanists was intent on disgracing the much-loved Christmas institution, in much the same way a Black Mass profanes the Eucharist. How they must have chuckled at their cleverness when they paid for the slogan “There’s Probably No God” to be emblazoned across 800 London double-decker buses, and all timed to coincide with Epiphany, the celebration of arrival of the Three Wise Men bringing gold, frankincense and myrrh.

Virtuous in their indignation against religion, they set about offending every Christian in sight. Certain of their own faith in science, these contemptuous and contemptible bigots thought nothing of trampling on the beliefs of others. Such is the intellectual imperialism of scientism – a prevalent and predominant attitude among those who dogmatically project the scientific method as the one and only true way of acquiring knowledge about ‘reality’ and the nature of things. They fail to realise that the scientific method is limited by paradox, even in Physics – science’s backyard. Their ‘rational’ certainty in the natural laws of Physics is built on shifting sands, namely that of linear causality. All are guilty of making Science’s First Mistake.

The phrase Science’s First Mistake is the title that I and Dionysios chose for our book. It is a play on Nietzsche’s notorious words “Woman was God’s second mistake”. Before politically correct readers throw up their hands in disgust, they are asked first to reflect, and to recognise that this was Nietzsche’s idea of a joke. Woman was not the target of his rhetoric. No, he was referring obliquely to God’s first mistake, or rather humanity’s: namely that homo sapiens, godlike, had been put in control of the planet – the Sixth Day as described in Genesis 1:
27: So God created man in his own image, in the image of God created he him; male and female created he them.
28: And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.

How paradoxical, that in its attempts to replace God, Science should take up the baton of domination from Genesis. This too was recognized by Nietzsche in his most infamous quotation “God is Dead!”, although most people don’t realize these words are completed with “… And we have killed Him.” Here Nietzsche is pointing out the rise of secular societies, and what is of particular interest here – humanism, all grounded in the arrogance of certainty in scientism and the conceit of Modernism.

For there can be no dominion over the Earth! Control through the application of Science is a myth. There can be no permanent solutions to the ineffable human condition, only contingencies. We are all at the mercy of the Fates. Indeed, the hubris that comes with an unquestioned belief in scientific method, particularly when it is targeted at social, political, commercial, and even religious concerns is an accident waiting to happen.

It’s time to nail the big lie of the last three centuries, and stop this obsession with tidy methodical ‘rational’ solutions. ‘Understanding through scientific theory, and applied via its methods’ does not place us in control of human destiny. Indeed, there is no such thing as ‘understanding’, only mere description through observation … and observation is itself a delusion steeped in paradox. I readily admit that, as an agnostic, it came as quite a shock to me that the words of a nineteenth century hymn should resonate so well with my thinking:

Immortal, Invisible, God only wise
In light inaccessible hid from our eyes …
(Hymns of Christ and the Christian Life, Walter C. Smith.)

For human observation does not allow us access to the ‘real world’: observation is deceived by the linearity inferred in causality. We don’t observe causality in the world; a belief in causality is a necessary prerequisite of observation and cognition. Indeed, without the delusion of causality there would be no observation; observation and cognition are only possible because linearity is erroneously imposed on what is an always complex, non-linear world.

Linearity – just one thing after another; an assumption of sequential and consequential developments that are free of interference and surprise. Linearity – bring A and B together, and the outcome is predictably C: here A, B and C are the categorical ‘things’ that we observe and focus on in the world. However, that non-linear world is drowning in a chaotic bubbling alphabet soup of misinterpreted so-called ‘causes’ of previously-created effects, only for them to interact and become new ‘causes’, and on and on; any one of which may interfere with specific instances of A or B before they interact, or mess with and change C even before C’s existence has become apparent to us; and all is swamped in the delusion and paradox of observation.

Surely we must recognize that each particular A, B and C is an instance taken from an expanding set of categories that each of us has been developing self-referentially since birth, and that form the cognitive building blocks of individual ‘understanding’. However, these categories are abstractions, ideals, parts of a map; they are not the ineffable and inaccessible things-in-the-world that they are supposed to represent – rather they are merely pale intellectual shadows created inside our heads. ‘The map is not the terrain’. “Everything that distinguishes man from the animals depends upon this ability to volatilize perceptual metaphors in a schema, and thus to dissolve an image into a concept”: Nietzsche again.

During our lifetimes, each of us continuously categorizes the things-in-the-world we observe – and we bunch each instance together with other similar things as if they are the same, and each group of similar entities is identified with a particular abstraction. However, in categorizing, that cognitive ideal must miss the unique totality of each particular instance of the thing-in-the-world to which it corresponds. Indeed, in order to observe, it is essential that we don’t observe every miniscule facet of all the components that make up the world.

Without the filtering property of linearity we would be overwhelmed by the sheer enormity of the detail. This filtering out of the unobserved gives rise to interfering paradoxes that come with this categorical basis of observation; hence the imagined linear predictability of the behaviour of things-in-the-world, and the accompanying wish for control, will always prove illusory.

And yet observation is our cognitive laboratory, a place of enforced linearity, where we experiment as we make our way in the world; and that is only possible because we utilize the fiction of linearity that is categorization. It’s not only in the Harry Potter books (coincidently also published by our publisher Bloomsbury) that we humans can induce a change in the world by chanting incantations and waving a magic wand. We may not realize it, but this is what we humans do every day when we self-referentially use our categorizations/ descriptions/ observations of ‘objects in the real world’ (what is this but casting a magic spell) to create ideas, so that when ritually applied, the world bends to our will … usually.

However, we remain the apprentice, never to be the sorcerer – the paradoxes that stem from delusion, along with unexpected events, will ultimately conspire to upset our desired imposition of control mechanisms. Nevertheless we can create transitory stabilities that enable us to make our way reasonably successfully in the world. Our trick is to introduce social, cultural, intellectual, as well as physical artifacts into the world that form a pragmatic sink for much (but not all) of the surrounding noise, and which limits the disrupting influence of both detail and non-linearity.

However, these filters can never hold the complex world of surprises at bay indefinitely. The linear incantation that is ‘understanding’ will never totally control the non-linear world that can only be seen “in light inaccessible hid from our eyes” … in other words a world that cannot be truly seen. Or as Niklas Luhmann so eloquently puts it: “observation is only possible because it is impossible.” Science’s first mistake is its failure to recognize there is no permanent dominion over a world that can only ever be ‘observed’ by ignoring the delusion and paradox implicit in observation itself. People in humanist glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. So please Messrs Dawkins, Gervais, Uncle Tom Cobley, and all, sort out your own mistakes, before criticizing those you see in others.

All human observation is flawed; all understanding is delusion. Man cannot understand what is happening in the world. Unaided, mankind cannot understand or communicate with God. God, on the other hand, should He exist, would not operate under the same restrictions. He is not trapped by human limitations, and so it is possible that He could communicate with, and aid us. Whether humanity can grasp His messages correctly, is of course quite another matter. And that’s where faith comes in, and also why no scientist can be in any position to deny Him.

From within their own self-referential certainty many scientists see religion as absurd. Religion of course attributes Truth to an ineffable supernatural Being beyond the realms of observation and sense data, thereby displacing the paradoxes from human territory altogether. And from that position, all non-belief is absurd.

Contract signed

David and I have finally signed the contract for Flight of the Golden Geese with Oyster Point Press. We expect the book to be available around September. Between now and then we have the job of getting the marketing started … informing all our contacts in the press and media in order to maximise the impact of the launch. I would be grateful to all the readers of this blog for any help in this endeavour. Please ask any of your contacts in the press and media who would like to know more about the book to send me a message on the Contact page of this website, which will guarantee they reach me.

The streets of London are paved with Golden Geese

According to the Sunday Times 104 billionaires with a combined wealth of £301billion now live in the UK. London alone has 72 billionaires (39 of whom were not born in the UK), more than any other town: Moscow (48); New York (43). They have bought property, employ staff, and spend money – all of enormous benefit to the British economy. Be quite clear these people disperse huge sums in the economy.

They must not be taken for granted. Or despised for their wealth. They are after all, Golden Geese, and they can fly out as easily as they entered, to the benefit of other economies. But what do the Labour and LibDem politicians want. To introduce a mansion tax, and plan all sorts of other snide taxes to “squeeze them until the pips squeak”. Not that the populists in the Conservative Party are much better.

Of course the visiting super-rich can afford to pay what is to them a drop in the ocean. However, what they see is not a tax grab, rather that they are being treated with contempt, or worse that they are seen as beneath contempt by the politicians who are playing to the masses in order to drum up votes. These are proud people, and be quite sure they will move on. Then the great unwashed, who as in France scream ‘good riddance’, will find themselves having to make up the shortfall in tax revenues.

Take That tax avoiders

The UK government has in place some very generous tax relief schemes for genuine business investment in British creative industries, with the intention of helping the country’s film, television and video production companies to compete globally.

The HMRC however claim that the system is being abused. Judge Colin Bishopp has agreed with them. A company called Icebreaker, made up of a number of different partner companies, put money into schemes that generated losses of £336million, and so could claim huge tax relief. The tax tribunal ruled Icebreaker was set up as a deliberate attempt to avoid paying tax.

Gary Barlow, Howard Donald and Mark Owen from the pop group Take That – along with manager Jonathan Wild – were among about 1,000 people who put money into the scheme. They will now become liable for the tax.

In the Flight of the Golden Geese both David Lesperance and I are adamant that all investments in such schemes are folly. They will all be outlawed sooner or later, laying investors open to huge repayments, and possibly even fines or worse … jail time. We make it quite clear, the only safe way of minimizing tax liability is to pay up all tax owing and fly the coop to more welcoming climes.

Piketty: Ideology masquerading as Theory

Thomas Piketty’s book Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century has become a bestseller. It bemoans the fact that he sees the rich get richer, and the poor poorer. His answer: tax the rich until the pips squeak. Turn taxation into confiscation … set income tax rates at 80% or more. It’s unfair that money begets money, so the state must redistribute. The problem is that if there are no rich, there is no money to be-gotten.

Piketty is clearly only interested in developed countries – where he sees the inequality. Wealth is pouring out of the arrogant West, and is ending up elsewhere in the world. Living standards are improving there, at the price of those in the West. What right do we have to keep it all for ourselves, and to distribute it among people who do nothing to generate wealth? We are already seeing a redistribution of wealth. From the US, Western Europe and Japan to China, India, Russia, and who knows maybe some parts of Africa will also get the snouts in the trough. And if the wealthy can hold on to their money, then paying for the exodus of wealth will fall on the middle and lower classes in the developed world.

Even if the wealthy can’t prevent confiscation, then as we say in the Flight of the Golden Geese, much of their wealth will flee grasping jurisdictions, and anyway there simply aren’t enough rich around to fill the money pit that is emerging. A consequence will be less investment, a drop in entrepreneurship, and the centre of gravity of the world’s economy will move on to more welcoming climes.

Piketty claims to have a theoretical justification for his theories, but this is just politics of envy masquerading as the dismal science of Economics. This is ideology donning the mask of theory.

The Fall of the House of Deneuve

The bottom has fallen out of top of the housing market in France. Falls of as much as 40% have been reported. Film star Catherine Deneuve has failed to sell her magnificent 18th century mansion, complete with lake, moat, and exquisite garden, despite lowering the price. And when the top falls, prices of regular housing are necessarily squeezed downward.

Because of the “we hate the rich” policies of Hollande’s government the market is being hit by a double whammy. French high net worth individuals are leaving the country, and the global rich think twice before investing in France.

Of course if France still had the Franc, the result would be a sharp drop in it’s value. Stuck with the Euro, France will now how to absorb the pressure elsewhere in its economy.

Flight of the Golden Geese

David Lesperance and I are about to sign the contract for The Flight of the Golden Geese, our book about how the world’s high net worth individuals are fleeing taxation. I’ll let you know when we have finally put pen to paper, and about the publication dates.

Meanwhile, some of you have asked me about the cartoon video that David produced, summarising the attitude of the Golden Geese. In response I have posted it on the video page of this website, or you can find it on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u69VNU4pJ4I

Government bank robbers

Hidden deep among the small print of Sections 1.208, 1.200 and 1.201 of the UK’s April 2014 Budget lie hidden some hideous governmental dirty tricks. If tax officials merely think you owe the state money they can grab it directly from your bank account. No legal proceedings, just a couple of letters and a phone call – generously they must leave £5000 in your accounts.

Worse, if you are in dispute with the state, they can assume they will win the case, and will take the money IN ADVANCE of any proceedings. They can confiscate the sum directly from your bank account even before a judge has decided whether or not you have broken the law.

Mansion Tax madness

Hardly a month goes by without some new tax being floated by politicians idea for ripping off the wealthy in the UK; a mansion tax, presently a pipe dream of greedy politicians, is gaining support in both Labour and Liberal Democrat parties. The Liberals are even taking a person’s full property portfolio into account to levy a tax on total assets worth more that £2 million. Knight Frank, the up-market estate agents/realtors, has interesting points to make. “If the £2m threshold were adopted and not increased in line with house price inflation, over the next 25 years a total of 775,500 properties would be dragged into the mansion tax net, including all properties with a current value of £540,000 or more. This means that some first time buyers buying through the government’s help to buy scheme (upper limit £600,000) would be paying a mansion tax before they finished their mortgage term.” Some politicians are even considering taxing jewellery. No surprise then that the rich, the people I call Golden Geese, are running for cover. The politics of envy is making Britain unattractive to the worlds rich. And when they fly away, they take their spending with them.

However, the situation is far worse than the rich leaving. The Knight Frank report is being wildly optimistic. Once a new tax has settled in place, two things happen. Both the threshold level will go down, and the rate being levied goes up. We won’t have to wait a quarter of a century for £2 million to be down to $500,000 (in today’s money), which will drag in many ‘ordinary’ houses in the South-East of England into the net. And expect 1% to become 1.5% and then 2%, and up and up. In order to pay it many householders will have to sell up – the simple fact is that many people living in ‘mansions’ do not have income sufficient to pay the tax demands. The result is a ‘fire sale’ of property, trickling down to a crash in house prices.