All posts by Ian Angell

The Fallacy of the ‘Residual Category’

I’ll start by sounding off on a favourite theme of mine: the only property that systems have in common is that THEY ALL FAIL … eventually. But it’s true. I’m always on the lookout for perverse systems failures, so please let me know if you come across any novel examples.

It’s all to do with the complexity in the interaction between computer systems and human activity systems. The evidence is there for all to see. Consider the problems with biometric databases. Baroness Anelay of St Johns, with a group of British parliamentarians, was once given a demonstration of a facial recognition system. It failed; indeed the system subsequently crashed, twice. The reason? A ‘gentleman’ at the biometrics company told the baroness that her face was “too bland.”

In 2000, Raymond Easton, a 49-year-old man living in Swindon was charged with a burglary in Bolton, 200 miles away. His DNA matched some found at the crime scene. The problem was Easton was in the advanced stages of Parkinson’s disease, and could barely dress himself. Only after an advanced DNA test was the initial match proved to be a ‘false-positive’: this is when innocents are identified as guilty, for whatever reason – ‘false-negatives’ are when the guilty slip through the net.

Television programmes like CSI (Crime Scene Investigation) trumpet the myth of forensic investigators vacuuming up biological material from the scene of crime, and comparing DNA samples with a computerised database, until finally out pops the criminal’s name: end of story! Nothing is that simple. Official figures admit to a 4% error in the database. Felons will vacuum up DNA from football crowds and collect cigarette-ends. Low paid hospital staff will be compromised to supply hospital detritus: samples of blood, skin, saliva, and other biological material. Aspiring criminals, while perpetrating a crime, will randomly scatter an arbitrary collection of DNA material all over the crime scene, and the whole system will be compromised.

Fingerprints are problematic. In 1997 Shirley McKie was a police detective in Kilmarnock, Scotland. During the investigation of the murder of Marion Ross, it was claimed that she had accidently left her thumb print inside the house where the murder took place. McKie was adamant that she had not entered the property, and this was affecting the credibility of the police case. She refused to back down, and was arrested in a dawn raid the following year and charged with perjury. The only evidence was the thumb print allegedly found at the murder scene. Two American experts testified on her behalf at her trial in May 1999 and she was found not guilty. The Scottish Criminal Record Office would not admit any error, but Scottish first minister Jack McConnell later said there had been an “honest mistake”. On February 7, 2006, McKie was awarded £750,000 in compensation.

The Chaos Computer Club (CCC), the long-standing German hackers’ club, has shown how to capture fingerprints, transfer them onto a foil, and then wear it to beat biometric readers across Germany. To add insult to injury CCC has published a fingerprint of the German Interior Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, a vocal supporter of biometrics.

All of these cases are examples of problems resulting from self-referential tunnel vision, all caused by the fallacy of the ‘residual category’. In creating a computerised system, designers first identify and then categorise certain entities (and their properties) as being of interest – as data. Focussing on these data categories, everything else is dumped into one big residual category, and ignored. However, the representation of each ‘interesting’ element can only ever be a pale shadow of the totality of the thing itself. All other aspects of that thing are deemed unnecessary, and they too are discarded in the residual category. The categorical representation of ‘each thing as data’ is not identical to the thing-in-itself: because ‘the map {the overall data structure} is not the terrain.’

Each shadow element will remain ‘structurally coupled’ to the ‘rest of the world,’ but in creating the computerised system all these couplings are cut and discarded. Therefore, treating the ‘remainder’ as a separate ‘residual category’ implies that these couplings have simply disappeared, which means the two parts (the data, and everything else in the residual category) no longer comprise the original ‘whole.’

Hence, the system, by its very nature, introduces an asymmetry: the couplings are made to disappear from any representation … but they are still there in the world. The two artificially separated parts continue to operate (and perhaps interact) as the unobservable whole. Because of this asymmetry (between the world as it is, and as it is represented), all data is conditional, but those conditions are necessarily unobservable, unappreciable. However, they can be appreciated by others who take a different perspective, and derive different categorisations outside this self-referential loop.

System designers (and users) always have tunnel vision, assuming that everything in the residual category will mind its own business and not interfere. However, the analysis implicit in the system’s design is not the only one. A different perspective will beget different observations, different interpretations, different categorisations … a different analysis and a different system that will compete with the original. Natural selection, and not mathematical sophistication will decide which system is the most appropriate.

This non-referential aspect of every data entity in the system means that all such data is necessarily a misrepresentation. Another observation is required to clarify the situation, however, that too will introduce new distinctions, bringing with it new partially unobserved interferences, new (mis)representations.

This problem is apparent in all attempts at categorisation. A choice of categories may solve preconceived problems, however, bewildering situations will inevitably arise that finesse, even reverse, the best intentions of analysts.

Truncated and trailing structural couplings, so casually discarded by the system, stay on to haunt and interfere with the user, and they can reassert themselves in the most inconvenient ways. One particularly good example of how opportunists can take advantage of the asymmetry is the so-called ‘click fraud’ in on-line advertising.

Analysts from Google, Yahoo and others have developed the highly profitable pay-per-click system. Anyone can display ‘Google ads’ on their Web sites, and any visitor who clicks on the ‘ad.’ is transferred to the advertiser’s site. Every click is charged to the advertiser, and the income is shared down the food chain, some eventually ending up with the site displaying the advertisement. Apparently advertisers get better value for money than with old media, because they only pay for ‘live ones,’ those interested parties who bothered to click on the ‘ad.’ The value of this business in the US alone is well in excess of 10 billion dollars annually.

Those not interested in the products supposedly don’t click the advertisements. Oh no! People in this residual category of ‘disinterest in the products for sale’ may take a very different perspective, and show a lively interest in the ‘free money’ on offer – hence the ‘click fraud.’ I should add that I’m not sure it is a fraud. If a company announces ‘get someone to click on my site and I’ll pay you,’ then they shouldn’t be surprised if some of the visitors come from the residual category of non-customers.

The opportunists who categorise the world differently set up dummy sites filled solely with ‘Google ads.’ They then hire people to click on the ‘ads’, with no intension of buying anything of course, and in this way sites can make quite a few ‘bucks per click’. Such moneymaking antics have even been automated. It has been estimated that this click fraud costs business around half a billion dollars a year. Google, Yahoo are intercepting the more obvious frauds, but it still goes on.

Aren’t residual categories wonderful?
I’d love to hear of the particular experiences of anyone (anonymously of course!) who has set up such a site.

Automation Complacency

It never ceases to amaze me how history repeats itself – and we never seem to learn from it. The same old problems seem to keep on cropping up. In this short blog I’d like to refer to one particular form that I call ‘automation complacency,’ where high-tech devices and a faith in systems lull us into a false sense of security. I’ve been collecting examples for twenty five years. Here are a couple of the first I came across.

Here is an example from over twenty years ago. On October 17, 1989, the earthquake in San Francisco knocked out all ATM and EFTPOS machines. {By the way do we still use the term EPTPOS (Electronic Funds Transfer at Point Of Sale) today? In the UK we just say ‘chip and pin.’} After the ‘quake no-one could buy badly needed goods (like food!) because their credit/debit cards were useless with the EFTPOS down, and they couldn’t use cash because no-one had any with the ATMs out of action! Utility had become reliance, reliance had become dependence, and an accident was waiting to happen.

There’s another earthquake story from ‘Frisco. I don’t have the exact details, so I’d be grateful if any reader can fill in the gaps. It concerns a company {unknown} that had conscientiously developed a disaster recovery programme. Like good boy scouts, they were prepared for all eventualities. An exact back-up system of their computer facility was housed in Arizona, which could be on-line at the flick of a switch. They even had emergency drills, where all staff rushed to the airport and flew off to Phoenix {I think}, so they could deliver a normal service to their customers in a matter of hours.

Confident, or is that complacent, that their system had all the angles covered, a major earthquake duly came, {I think it was the same quake} and the backup system swung into action. However, unlike in the dry runs, this time all the staff rushed home to check that their families were unharmed!

Has anyone got similar stories of automation complacency?

Another Day, Another Tax

I opened the newspaper today and immediately two new tax stories popped out.

First, the European Union is recommending that the UK increase taxes on property and land in order to … wait for it … boost economic growth in Britain. The EU doesn’t do irony.

Furthermore they said ‘To assist with fiscal consolidation, consideration should be given to raising tax revenues through broadening the tax base.’

Meanwhile the Labour Party is planning a ‘big idea’: to add another 1% increase to National Insurance Contributions to increase the budget for the National Health Service (for non-Brits that’s a tax on employment masquerading as payment for social benefits including the NHS). The tax is paid both by the employed and their employers … a tax on jobs to subsidise non-jobs. Employers organisations warn that any increase in ‘contributions’ (I love these euphemisms for theft) will cause job losses: The Oxford Economics study concluded 91,000 fewer jobs.

Clearly Labour is the Party for losers, intent on dragging even more of British society into that category.

What is it with the French political elite?

Thomas Piketty talks bo***cks in his book ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’. President Hollande’s idiotic policies are driving away France’s Golden Geese from its shores in droves. Just ask Gerard Depardieu.

Now Christine Lagarde, the French managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is following suit in her recent address to the Inclusive Capitalism Conference. She doesn’t see the irony in the IMF promoting social equality. See http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2014/052714.htm .

She says that persistent ethical failings among bankers, together with rising inequality, are undermining growth and financial stability. “The industry still prizes short-term profit over long-term prudence, today’s bonus over tomorrow’s relationship.” She may well be right about the banking industry, but to say that rising inequality is a barrier to growth, and could undermine democracy and human rights, is pure ideological cant.

Listen to her words: “One of the leading economic stories of our time is rising income inequality, and the dark shadow it casts across the global economy.” She quoted Oxfam’s claim that the world’s richest 85 people control the same wealth as the poorest half of the global population of 3.5 billion people.

“We must recognise that reducing inequality is not easy. Redistributive policies always produce winners and losers. Yet if we want capitalism to do its job – enabling as many people as possible to participate and benefit from the economy – then it needs to be more inclusive. That means addressing extreme income disparity.”

This is not rational economic theory, rather mere sentimentality. Her options to address inequality include more progressive taxation and greater use of property taxes. In other words Capitalism must stop being Capitalism. Risk takers must subsidize the risk averse, and the political elite will sort it all out. Just like Hollande in France? What arrogance! Jesus understood that “the poor you will always have with you …” Mathew 26:11.

How can the boss of the IMF fail to grasp both the moral jeopardy in her proposals, and that inequality is the engine of wealth creation? Redistribution is just interference by incompetents, knaves and the naive. The winners in Redistribution she refers to are the parasites in the political elite.

I’m not saying that “Greed is Good”. However, we should never lose sight of the fact that there is a Calvinistic morality in profit. The alternative, the slime mould of collectivism, will always create a dependency culture that ultimately destroys innovation, precipitates the entry of organized crime into business, and undermines the ability of trade to generate wealth.

And in the words of that great American vaudeville singer and philosopher, Sophie Tucker: “I’ve been rich and I’ve been poor. Believe me, honey, rich is better.”

Biblical Tax Collectors

David Lesperance and I need to get a move on with publishing The Flight of the Golden Geese. Many of the predictions in the book are coming to pass even before it sees the light of day.

One particular prediction is already happening in the UK. We say that the popular political rhetoric of squeezing the rich ‘until the pips squeak’ is total bunkum. There simply aren’t enough wealthy people around. Taxing them at 100%, or even confiscation, would not generate sufficient funds to cover the waste of profligate politicians. The target for tax collectors has always been the hard working middle classes and upper working classes. Our prediction is that the situation will get even more critical when the mobile rich, the Golden Geese, fly away from increasing tax demands, leaving those suckers with an even bigger tax bill.

Today in the UK, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) are experimenting with bully-boy letters sent to a thousand higher rate tax payers demanding to know why their self assessments require the payment of less tax than persons with similar earning profiles. No checking if the assessments are valid and the avoidance of tax is legitimate. A threatening letter was sent to an elderly widow who had made a large charitable donation, thereby legally reducing her liability.

By definition roughly half of tax payers in any profile will be paying less than average. People will end up paying more than they need just for the taxmen to go away. Over the last year the HMRC has been very successful in intimidating more money out of people with this ‘guilty until proven innocent’ approach. Soon we can expect to see these threatening letters rolled out across the whole country.

The HMRC is behaving like their counterparts in the Bible, and like in those times, tax-collectors will become pariahs in society.

France: economic suicide by socialism

France is dead, only the French haven’t realized it yet. It died on 6 May 2012, when the turkeys in France voted for Christmas. In the final runoff in the election for President of the Republic, socialist François Hollande with 51.63% of the vote defeated Nicolas Sarkozy with 48.37%. France had a new President who was reported to have once said “I hate the rich”.

In his campaign the victor had promised a socialist assault on the rich, by increasing the tax on incomes over €1m, temporarily (where have we heard that before), to 75%. After a raft of tax increases that were intended to raise an extra 30 billion euros in 2013, the Court of Auditors, which oversees the county’s accounts, tell us that the amount raised in a mere 16 billion. And at what cost?

Despite being elected on a anti-austerity platform, Hollande has been forced to implement spending cuts, saying France “cannot live with such heavy debt”. The end of 2013 saw unemployment hit a record high of 11%. There was zero growth in the first three months of 2014, and a significant number of the wealthy are jumping ship – so less taxes will be collected in future.

Just as we say in our upcoming book ‘The Flight of the Golden Geese’, the politics of envy doesn’t work. The state ends up collecting less taxes, and in the process the economy is destroyed.

Oscar: the beginning

dizzy600 copy
I’m often asked how I came to own Oscar. He of course claims that only dogs have masters; cats have staff. You’d never catch eight cats dragging a sled through snow. Women and cats do as they like, men and dogs do as they’re told. Dogs come when called, cats take a message and get back to you. Cats are God’s way of demonstrating not everything has a function.

As well as Oscar, I have a cat named Ben Her. At first I called it Ben, but then she had kittens.

How did I come to own Oscar? I was driving around the country lanes of deepest Surrey, when I noticed a sign saying ‘Talking cat for sale. Apply at farmhouse at the end of the lane’. Intrigued I drove there. The farmer welcomed me, and showed me out the back where Oscar was sitting on an arm chair. I sat opposite and we had a wonderful conversation. He told of his trips to Europe and the US. How he had met President Obama and George Clooney. He regaled me of his adventures in Afghanistan and Greenland.

I knew I had to buy him. I asked the farmer ‘how much’, expecting a price in thousands of pounds.

He said ‘Twenty pounds’.

Shocked, I said ‘is that all?’

‘You’ve heard him talk. He’s such a liar. He was born on this farm, and has never left it.’

Happy Tax Freedom Day

Wednesday May 28 is Tax Freedom day in the UK … the day the average Brit stops working for the government, and start working for themselves. That’s 148 days a year. Or so I’m told by the Adam Smith Institute. It is April 21 in the USA.

According the Adam Smith Institute “It is calculated by comparing general government tax revenue with Net National Income (NNI). The total of all government tax revenue – direct and indirect taxes, local taxes and National Insurance contributions – is calculated as a percentage of NNI at market prices. This year it comes to 41.09%. That percentage is then converted to days of the year, starting from 1 January. The first day of the year that Britons work for themselves rather than the taxman is Tax Freedom Day.”

For the wealthy and for the poor it is a lot earlier. For us suckers in the middle it is a lot later of course. The idea that when it’s all added up (including VAT, petrol tax, National Insurance) it comes to just over 40% is simply laughable. The word ‘average’ of course is where the deceit lies. It is sobering to remember that half the UK population gets more from the government than they put in.

Then there’s the Cost of Government Day — the day the government stops spending money — a more realistic figure of nearly 50% … this year it will be 26th June.

And as they say, ‘even the Mafia doesn’t charge you 50%’.

Everybody knows Oscar

dizzy600 copy
Oscar the talking cat has now become very famous. Everybody knows about Oscar. I told one of my betting friends this, and he was very dismissive. So I said “choose three famous people, and we’ll go and ask them if they know Oscar. If any one of them doesn’t know Oscar then I pay you one million pounds, otherwise you pay me one million.”

“OK” he said.

First Madonna. “Do I know Oscar, everybody knows Oscar. Why just last week I asked his advice on my next single.”

Second: the Queen of England. We knocked on the palace door, and Prince Phillip answered. “Excuse me, we’ve come to ask the Queen if she knows Oscar.”

“Does she know Oscar, of course she knows Oscar. Everybody knows Oscar. Hey Liz, there are two blokes down here asking about Oscar.”

The Queen shouted back “tell them they’ve just missed him.”

My friend was getting worried now, so for his third choice he said the Pope. We were walking across St Marks Square looking up at the balcony, where we saw Oscar and the Pope deep in conversation. Suddenly a tourist taps my friend on the shoulder, and said. “Excuse me mate, up there on the balcony, who’s the guy in white talking to Oscar?”

Oscar on Managing Uncertainty

dizzy600 copy
A little while ago Oscar was invited to be a keynote speaker at a commercial conference: ‘Managing Uncertainty’. He shared the stage with a statistician and the conference chairman. The statistician was on first. He droned on and on about Risk being all about distributions and expectations. The business audience found it inspiring stuff! Within five minutes eyes began to glaze over. After ten he was talking to an audience of one: Oscar. Oscar was on the stage, and so he had to listen to the rubbish.

But then, Oscar was expecting this. He always says that a statistician is someone who wants to work with numbers, but doesn’t have the personality to be an accountant. Statisticians think the average human being has one tit and one testicle.

Finally the man finished, and it was Oscar’s turn. He walked slowly over to the podium, and just stood there, … and stood there, … and stood there. For a whole minute he just stood there. He fidgeted, and shot frantic and terrified glances at the audience. At first there was silence, then a few murmurs, then a growing rumble of concern. The chairman rose to help, and was half way across the stage when Oscar banged his paw on the table. In a firm voice he announced: “now that’s uncertainty, it has nothing to do with statistics.”